Articles on Conversion optimization

Articles on conversion rate optimization a.k.a. CRO with primary focus on e-commerce and online businesses and e-mail marketing optimization.

Representative samples and generalizability of A/B testing results

Representative samples and generalizability of AB testing results

I see a nice trend in recent discussions on A/B testing: more and more people realize the need for proper statistical design and analysis which is a topic I hold dear as I’ve written dozens of articles and a few white-papers on. However, there are cases in which statistical validity is discussed without consideration for […] Read more…

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Designing successful A/B tests in Email Marketing

The process of A/B testing (a.k.a. online controlled experiments) is well-established in conversion rate optimization for all kinds of online properties and is widely used by e-commerce websites. On this blog I have already written in depth about the statistics involved as well as the ROI calculations in terms of balancing risk and reward for […] Read more…

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Analysis of 115 A/B Tests: Average Lift is 4%, Most Lack Statistical Power

Observed Percent Change Significant

Oct 2022 update: A newer, much larger and likely less biased meta analysis of 1,001 tests is now available! What can you learn from 115 publicly available A/B tests? Usually, not much, since in most cases you would be looking at case studies with very basic data about what was tested and the outcome of […] Read more…

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Confidence Intervals & P-values for Percent Change / Relative Difference

In many controlled experiments, including online controlled experiments (a.k.a. A/B tests) the result of interest and hence the inference made is about the relative difference between the control and treatment group. In A/B testing as part of conversion rate optimization and in marketing experiments in general we use the term “percent lift” (“percentage lift”) while in […] Read more…

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Affordable A/B Tests: Google Optimize & AGILE A/B Testing

The problem most-often faced by owners of websites who want to take a scientific approach to improving them by using A/B testing is that they might have relatively small revenue. Thus, when the ROI calculation for the A/B test is done it might turn out that it is economically unfeasible to test. In some cases, […] Read more…

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The Google Optimize Statistical Engine and Approach

Frequentist vs Bayesian A/B testing - Google Optimize

Updated Sep 17, 2018: Minor spelling and language corrections, updates related to role of randomization and external validity / generalizability. Google Optimize is the latest attempt from Google to deliver an A/B testing product. Previously we had “Google Website Optimizer”, then we had “Content Experiments” within Google Analytics, and now we have the latest iteration: […] Read more…

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Risk vs. Reward in A/B Tests: A/B testing as Risk Management

Risks vs Rewards in AB Testing

What is the goal of A/B testing? How long should I run a test for? Is it better to run many quick tests, or one long one? How do I know when is a good time to stop testing? How do I choose the significance threshold for a test? Is there something special about 95%? […] Read more…

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Costs and Benefits of A/B Testing: A Comprehensive Guide

Costs and Benefits in AB Testing

This is a comprehensive guide to the different types of costs and benefits, risks and rewards related to A/B testing. Understanding them in detail should be valuable to A/B testers and businesses considering whether to engage in A/B testing or not, what to A/B test and what not to test, etc. As far as I […] Read more…

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Statistical Significance for Non-Binomial Metrics – Revenue per User, AOV, etc.

Non-Binomial Significance - Revenue, Per User Metrics

In this article I cover the method required to calculate statistical significance for non-binomial metrics such as average revenue per user, average order value, average sessions per user, average session duration, average pages per session, and others. The focus is on A/B testing in the context of conversion rate optimization, landing page optimization and e-mail […] Read more…

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One-tailed vs Two-tailed Tests of Significance in A/B Testing

Two-tailed vs one-tailed test

The question of whether one should run A/B tests (a.k.a online controlled experiments) using one-tailed versus two-tailed tests of significance was something I didn’t even consider important, as I thought the answer (one-tailed) was so self-evident that no discussion was necessary. However, while preparing for my course on “Statistics in A/B Testing” for the ConversionXL […] Read more…

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The Case for Non-Inferiority A/B Tests

The Case for Non-Inferiority Testing

In this article, I explore the concept of non-inferiority A/B tests and contrast it to the broadly accepted practice of running superiority tests. I explain where non-inferiority tests are necessary and how a CRO/LPO/UX testing specialist can make use of this new approach to A/B testing to run much faster tests, and to ultimately achieve […] Read more…

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Statistical Significance in A/B Testing – a Complete Guide

Statistical Significance P Value

The concept of statistical significance is central to planning, executing and evaluating A/B (and multivariate) tests, but at the same time it is the most misunderstood and misused statistical tool in internet marketing, conversion optimization, landing page optimization, and user testing. This article attempts to lay it out in as plain English as possible: covering […] Read more…

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